Dr RD Stevens

IRISH RELIGION : THE EMPIRICAL SITUATION

Census Figures

Republic of Ireland 1981 1991 2002 2002
Roman Catholic 92.50% 91.60% 88.40% 3,462,600
Church of Ireland 2.77% 2.53% 2.95% 115,600
Presbyterian 0.41% 0.37% 0.53% 20,600
Methodist 0.17% 0.14% 0.26% 10,000
Others, no religion and not stated 3.61% 5.40% 7.86% 307,860
Total Population 3,443,405 3,525,719 3,916.800

For the Protestant Churches the 2002 Census marks the end of a long period of decline, with the Church of Ireland adding an additional 26,400 adherents, the Presbyterian Church an extra 7,400 and the Methodists 5,000 more, from 1991. The number of people in the Orthodox Churches rose from 400 to 10,400. One of the principal reasons for the growth in the 3 main Protestant Churches was through immigration (27,000). The growth in the Orthodox Churches was also through immigration.

Northern Ireland
The 2001 Census found the following:

Roman Catholic Church Presbyterian Church Church of Ireland Methodist Church
678,462 (40.26%) 348,742 (20.67%) 257,788 (15.30%) 59,173 (3.51%)

Other Christian (including Christian related) Other Religions andPhilosophies Person with no religion or not stated
102,221 (6.07%) 5,028 (0.3%) 233,853 (13.88%)

Comparison over time gives the following:
RomanCatholic Church ofIreland Presbyterian Churchin Ireland MethodistChurch in Ireland Other Denom-inations
Year % % % %
1926 420,000 33.5 338,000 27.0 393,000 31.3 49,000 3.9 52,000
1961 498,000 35.0 344,800 24.2 413,000 29.0 72,000 5.0 71,000
1971 562,000 36.8 334,318 22.0 405,719 26.5 71,235 4.6 87,838
1991 605,639 38.3 279,280 17.6 336,891 21.2 59,517 3.7 122,418
2001 678,462 40.26 257,788 15.3 348,762 20.69 59,173 3.51 102,221

Analysis by Paul Doherty (in Northern Ireland Politics, edited by Arthur Aughey and Duncan Morrow, Longman, 1996) of the 1991 Northern Ireland Census of those claiming no religion (3.7%) and those who refused to state a religious affiliation (7.3%) show that these are concentrated in the Greater Belfast area. Belfast and its eight neighbouring Local Government Districts all have more than 12% of their populations either claiming no affiliation; or not stating a religion. North Down has the highest level, 17.5%. Further, within these Districts there is a substantial variation; in the Malone-Stranmillis area, parts of Jordanstown and Holywood, for example, over 20% fall into this category. The author suggests that all of this indicates a move away from religion. In the 2001 Census the percentage figures for those with no religion or no stated religion for the 9 Greater Belfast Local Government Districts were now all over 16 with North Down at 25. Those claiming to have no religion tend to be of Protestant background, young and male.

All Ireland

Combining the 2001 Census Results for Northern Ireland and the 2002 Census Results for the Republic of Ireland gives the following:

RC C of I PCI MCI Baptist Quaker Lutheran Orthodox
N I(2001) 678,462 257,788 348,742 59,173 18,974 749 186 229
R of I (2002) 3,462,606 115,611 20,582 10,033 2,265 859 3068 10,437
TOTAL 4,141,068 373,399 369,324 69,206 21,339 1,608 3,254 10,666

Comparisons with 1991 give the following:

RC C of I PCI MCI Baptist Quaker Lutheran Orthodox
N I(1991) 605,639 279,280 336,891 59,517 19,484 804 123 72
R of I (1991) 3,228,327 89,187 13,199 5,037 1,156 749 1010 358
TOTAL 3,833966 368,467 350,090 64,554 20,640 1,553 1,133 430

THREE MAIN PROTESTANT CHURCHES; CHURCH STATISTICS OVER TIME
Church of Ireland Population
1947 457,000
1965 403,500
1996 346,015

(Source: Report of the Commission on Episcopal Needs in Church of Ireland General Synod Report, 1998)

Presbyterian Church in Ireland - persons of all ages
1968 399,807
1975 379,000
1995 305,000
1999 284,704
2002 276,117

(Source: Presbyterian Annual Reports)
Note: Most PCI statistics regarding persons hit their all time high in the mid-60s.

Methodist Church - Total Community
1968 65,064
1984 61,099
1995 59,669
1999 55,839
2002 55009
(Source: Methodist Annual Reports)

Methodist Church - Adult Membership
1955 33,000
1960 32,000
1970 28,000
1980 24,000
1990 19,400
1999 17,000

(Source: Methodist Annual Reports)
Note: Methodist membership peaked in 1958.

There is, in some cases, a significant difference between Census statistics and Church statistics - for example the 2002 RI Census figures for Methodists of 10,000 with Church own statistics of ca 5,400.

CHURCHES THAT ARE GROWING

Comparison with the 1991 NI Census shows that the number of Pentecostals has risen from just under 6000 to nearly 13,000 in 2001; the number of people in New Churches has marginally increased from just 1300 to just over 1400. However, there may be people 'hiding' in the 8502 'Christians' from the New Churches.

There are significant numbers of people in Black-Majority Churches in the Republic of Ireland (perhaps upwards of 10,000).

There are significant numbers of people in New Churches/Independent Churches in the Republic of Ireland which are not picked up in the Census figures (estimate 5,000 in the Dublin area alone).

The number of people in Orthodox Churches in the Republic of Ireland has risen from 400 in 1991
to 10,400 in 2002.

Mass Attendance Northern Ireland

Weekly or more Mass attendance
%
1969 Rose Survey 95
never 1
1978 Moxon-Browne Survey 90
never 3
1986 Policy Studies Institute Survey 90
never 1
1989 British Social Attitudes Survey 86
never 3
1991 British Social Attitudes Survey 85
1998 Life and Times Survey 67
never 5

Protestant Church Attendance Northern Ireland
%
1969 Rose Survey once a week 45
never 5
1978 Moxon-Browne Survey once a week 39
never 11
1986 Policy Studies Institute Survey once a week 34
never 15
1989 British Social Attitudes Survey once a week 44
never 15
1991 British Social Attitudes Survey once a week 40
never 16
1998 Life and Times Survey once a week 34
never 23

Mass Attendance Republic of Ireland %

At least once a week
1974 Nic Ghiolla Phadraig Survey 91
1984 Breslin & Weafer Survey 87
1989/90 MaGreil Survey 82
1990 European Values Survey 85
1992 AGB Adelaide Survey 78
1995 IMS Survey 64
1996 IT/MRBI Survey 66
1997 Catholic Church/IMS Survey 65
1998 RTE/MRBI Survey 60
1999 IMS Survey 57
2002 Millward Brown IMS 48
2003 TNS/MRBI 44

When two or three times a month is the standard the decline is noticeably less than when weekly mass attendance is the standard:

Mass attendance - 3 times a month or more %
1981 European Value Survey 82
1990 European Value Survey 81
1991 International Social Survey 76
1998 International Social Survey 73

The young are dropping most quickly from religious observance and there is an increasing difference between Mass attendance in rural and urban areas. The Irish Times Youth Poll (2003) of 15-24 year olds found 44% go to mass but only 30% in Dublin with 59% in Connaught/Ulster.

Number of Vocations in Roman Catholic Church in Ireland

1965 1375
1994 201
1998 92
2000 61

(Source: Council for Research and Development, Maynooth.)
Note: Vocations in the Catholic Church started to decline from 1961

The Christian Churches in Northern Ireland
DENOMINATIONAL STATISTICS: 1991-2001

1991 N.I. Census Irish Christian Handbook (1994) 1 Denominational Sources (1998) 2 2001 N.I. Census
Catholic Church 605,639 518,016 3 as Irish Christian Handbook 678,462
Presbyterian (PCI) 336,891 194,718 e not available 348,742
Church of Ireland 279,280 161,500 e not issued 257,788
Methodist 59,517 19,357 e approx. 30,000 4 59,173
Baptist Union 19,484 8,890 e over 8,000 5 18,974
Christian Brethren 12,446 6,300 e 6 12,000 approx.est. 8,595 7
Free Presbyterian 12,363 13,400 e 8 not available 8 11,902 + 87 9
Congregational 8,176 1,900 e 2,200 10 5,701
Elim Pentecostal 5,537 11 6,500 e approx. 10,000 5,448 12
Non-Subscribing Presb 3,213 13 3,600 e 4,600 14 1,233 15
Reformed Presb. 3,184 1,865 e approx. 4,000 16 2,238
Salvation Army 1,918 1,110 e approx. 1,000 1,640
Church of the Nazarene 1,149 630 e not available 17 1,215
Free Methodist 1,119 296 e 729 18 266 19
Independent Methodist 835 260 e not available 20 1,771
Quakers (Society of Friends) 804 925 e as Irish Christian Handbook 749
Evangelical Presbyterian 730 494 e 458 21 543
Moravians 714 340 e 600 22 691
Assemblies of God 326 360 e not available 216
Apostolic 254 23 260 e not available 237
Lutherans 123 55 e not available 24 186
New Churches (1,300) 25 1,800 e not available (1,476) 26
Chinese Church - 70 e not available 25 27
Orthodox 72 28 183 e 29 as Census (229) 30

e - estimate

Notes:
1. Figures from the 1995/6 Edition of the Irish Christian Handbook - published in 1994.
2. Denominational figures are mostly as provided for A Tapestry of Beliefs (Blackstaff Press, 1998)
3. Average weekly mass attendance in 1995 (taken as 89% of the Roman Catholic population).
4. Including 19,000 active adults and 11,000 children.
5. Baptised members only; children and other active adherents are not included in this figure.
6. Plus approximately 1,000 members of the Exclusive Brethren.
7. Some 2001 census respondents used terms such as Christian (8,502) or Protestant (3,674) or Evangelical (1,229) or Mission Hall (80), and it seems possible that some Brethren may have used one of these alternative appellations.
8. There are approximately 100 Free Presbyterian congregations, mostly in NI but including some in other parts of the world.
9. The 2001 census gave separate figures for Free Presbyterian (11,902) and Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster (87). These figures should most likely be combined, giving a total of 11,989.
10. 1995 estimate of the 'Community' figure. The Irish Christian Handbook adds: 'Active adult members could be taken as approximately 60% of the community figure'.
11. When 1991 the figures for Elim, Assemblies of God, Apostolic are added to other named Pentecostal groups (Pentecostal; Apostolic Pentecostal; Charismatic; Free Church of God) the Pentecostal total becomes 10,686).
12. The 2001 Census records other Pentecostal groups: Pentecostal (5,533); Whitewell Metropolitan Tabernacle (399); Metropolitan Church (125); Charismatic (93); Full Gospel Assembly (25), and when added to the Elim, Assemblies of God and Apostolic numbers this gives a Pentecostal total of 12,329. (Other groups may also be regarded as Pentecostal.)
13. The 1991 census also showed, as a separate group, Non-Subscribing Old Presbyterian (152). This group did not appear separately in 2001, although 379 respondents identified themselves as Unitarian.
14. This figure includes active adults plus Sunday School attenders.
15. This figure indicates one of the most notable proportionate declines in comparison with the 1991 figures, notwithstanding the number of Unitarians (see note 13).
16. Figure includes 2,500 communicant members plus 1,500 children and other adherents.
17. There are 13 Church of the Nazarene congregations in Northern Ireland.
18. This is based on the Church's own average Sunday service attendance figure in the early 1990s. NB: A Minister of the Free Methodist Church has given the much lower figure of 170 active members in 1998 (in A Tapestry of Beliefs).
19. This 2001 figure also indicates a significant decline in comparison with the 1991 census (but see also note 18).
20. In 1998 there were 16 Independent Methodist congregations in Northern Ireland.
21. The figure is for communicant membership in 1995. Average morning worship attendance in 1995 was 662.
22. In 1998 it was reckoned that approximately a further 200 adherents should be added to this figure.
23. The 1991 census also showed, as a separate group, Apostolic Pentecostal (156). This group did not appear separately in 2001.
24. The 1998 estimate was that there were approximately 50 Lutheran families in Northern Ireland.
25. The 1991 figure of 1,300 is for the Christian Fellowship Church - only one component of the 'New Churches' movement.
26. This most recent 'New Churches' figure is compiled (somewhat speculatively) from a number of groups indicated separately in the 2001 census: Christian Fellowship (1,015); House Church (138); Christian Fellowship Church (111); Community Church (76); King's Fellowship (47); New Church (43); Lifeline/Lifelink Church (35); Gateway Church (11). Some other named groups may also come into this category.
27. There is so far only one Chinese Christian congregation in Northern Ireland.
28. The 1991 census figure is for Greek Orthodox only.
29. This 1995 fuller estimate covers a wider range of Orthodox Churches (Greek, Russian, Romanian, etc.).
30. The 2001 census figure is compiled from several separate entries: Orthodox Church (113); Greek Orthodox (94); Russian Orthodox Church (22).

General Observations
Figures in the 2001 census are in many cases significantly different from (usually higher than) the Churches' own figures (as indicated in the 1994 and 1998 documentation). This may well be due to the readiness of census respondents in Northern Ireland to identify themselves with religious denominations with which they are not actively involved or to use religious terms to describe their cultural, national and political allegiance even when they do not practice any religion.

Fewer respondents in the 2001 census declined to respond to the Religion question, which may well account for the increase in the numbers for the Catholic Church and the Presbyterian Church in Ireland (both of which offer smaller numbers in relation to regular attendance). One disappointment in the 2001 figures currently available, however, is the failure to distinguish between those who did not respond (about 8% in 1991) and those who stated "No religion" (about 4% in 1991); the total for "not stated" and "no religion" in 2001 was just over 14%. The number of Christian (and Christian-related) groups seems to have risen overall - almost 100 different groups listed with 10 or more adherents, as compared with about 60 in 1991.

The 2001 figures (like the 1991 figures before them) are somewhat distorted by the number of respondents who seem to prefer not to indicate a denominational 'label', using instead terms such as Christian (8,502); Protestant (3,674); Evangelical (1,229); and Interdenominational (131).

Norman Richardson January 2003 (A revision and update of material initially prepared in 1998 for A Tapestry of Beliefs)

WORLD FAITHS IN THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
The 2002 Census gave
§ the number of Muslims as 19,100, up from 3,900 in 1991;
§ the Jewish Community was 1,790, up from 1,581 in 1991;
§ the Buddhist Community was 3,894, up from 986;
§ the Hindhu Community was 3,099, up from 953.

WORLD FAITHS IN NORTHERN IRELAND
Numbers of Adherents: 1991 - 2001

RELIGIOUSTRADITION NI Census1991 "Another Ireland"1996 † NI Census2001
Islam 972 1,500 approx. 1943
Hinduism 742 250 familiesapprox. 825 ‡+ 53 Hare Krishna
Judaism 410 250 approx. * 365
Baha'i 319 319 plus 254
Buddhism 270 100 approx. 533 ++
Sikhism 157 50 approx. 219
Chinese Religions - (7,000 ethnicChinese) 32 **+ 41 Taoists
(Humanism) 69 - 40

† Another Ireland: An Introduction to Ireland's Ethnic-Religious Communities by Maurice Ryan (Stranmillis College, 1996)

‡ When the figure for Hindus of the Hare Krishna (Vaishnava) tradition is added to the number of other Hindus the total is 878.

* This is the number of Jews actively involved in the Belfast synagogue.
It is reckoned that there are about 1,000 people in Northern Ireland with a Jewish family background (including many who have married out of the faith.)

** Many members of the Chinese community have substantially secularised but retain traces of traditional Chinese religious practices. The figure given separately in the 2001 Census for Taoists should probably be added to the figure for Chinese Religions, giving a total of 73. (The 2001 Census indicates that 0.25% of the NI population are of Chinese ethnic origin - 4,203 people.)

++ The number of practising Buddhists in Northern Ireland is not known to be currently more than about 50 according to members of the Buddhist community. The much larger Census figures (in 1991 and especially in 2001) may indicate that some respondents have used the term casually or in order to mislead. (Another possibility, however, is that some of the 533 may be from the Chinese Community.)

When one takes account of figures supplied by the faith communities themselves (even though these are often estimates) it is clear that Census figures are somewhat at variance. It seems likely that the Census reflects general allegiance rather than active membership.

Nevertheless, the 2001 Census indicates a small but significant growth in the numbers belonging to faith communities other than the Christian Churches. The number of identified religious groups has also grown, and other groups indicated by the 2001 Census include:
Pagan (148); Atheist (106); Spiritualist (106); Agnostic (66); Wicca (50); Druidism (19); Rastafarian (13); Zoroastrian (13); and Satanist (12).

Norman Richardson: December 2002